It was eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach scolded him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
